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TuS BW Königsdorf vs Hürth — Oberliga - Mittelrhein 2020

TuS BW Königsdorf
TuS BW Königsdorf
FT
1 – 1
Hürth
Hürth
3/24/2024Oberliga - MittelrheinOberliga - Mittelrhein · Mittelrhein - 23Sportplatz Königsdorf

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

TuS BW Königsdorf54%
×Draw21%
Hürth24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

TuS BW Königsdorf
2.05
Hürth
1.31

TuS BW Königsdorf creates 56% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 66 away

creates per match

TuS BW Königsdorf
2.08
Hürth
1.41

allows per match

TuS BW Königsdorf
1.22
Hürth
2.03

finishing

TuS BW Königsdorf+0.00on par
Hürth+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

TuS BW Königsdorf ↓

Hürth →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

TuS BW Königsdorf or draw
76%
TuS BW Königsdorf or Hürth
79%
Draw or Hürth
46%

Winning margin

TuS BW Königsdorf wins by 2+
32%
Hürth wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

TuS BW Königsdorf 1+ goals
87%
TuS BW Königsdorf 2+ goals
61%
TuS BW Königsdorf 3+ goals
33%
Hürth 1+ goals
73%
Hürth 2+ goals
38%
Hürth 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

TuS BW Königsdorf (draw refunded)
69%
Hürth (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

TuS BW Königsdorf at home — creates 2.08, concedes 1.22 · 59 matches

Hürth away — creates 1.41, concedes 2.03 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

TuS BW Königsdorf attack 2.08 + Hürth defence 2.03 → ÷2 → 2.05

Hürth attack 1.41 + TuS BW Königsdorf defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

TuS BW Königsdorf scores more
54%
level
21%
Hürth scores more
24%

TuS BW Königsdorf at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "TuS BW Königsdorf will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Mittelrhein: TuS BW Königsdorf 1–1 Hürth

TuS BW Königsdorf and Hürth drew 1-1 in Oberliga - Mittelrhein on March 24, 2024.

The match was played at Sportplatz Königsdorf in Frechen.