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Hürth vs TuS BW Königsdorf — Oberliga - Mittelrhein 2020

Hürth
Hürth
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
TuS BW Königsdorf
TuS BW Königsdorf
9/30/2023Oberliga - MittelrheinOberliga - Mittelrhein · Mittelrhein - 8Salus Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Hürth42%
×Draw24%
TuS BW Königsdorf34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hürth
1.65
TuS BW Königsdorf
1.47

Hürth creates 12% more chances

Season form · 65 home / 60 away

creates per match

Hürth
1.37
TuS BW Königsdorf
1.48

allows per match

Hürth
1.46
TuS BW Königsdorf
1.92

finishing

Hürth+0.00on par
TuS BW Königsdorf+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hürth ↓

TuS BW Königsdorf →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Hürth or draw
66%
Hürth or TuS BW Königsdorf
76%
Draw or TuS BW Königsdorf
58%

Winning margin

Hürth wins by 2+
21%
TuS BW Königsdorf wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Hürth 1+ goals
81%
Hürth 2+ goals
49%
Hürth 3+ goals
23%
TuS BW Königsdorf 1+ goals
77%
TuS BW Königsdorf 2+ goals
43%
TuS BW Königsdorf 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Hürth (draw refunded)
55%
TuS BW Königsdorf (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hürth at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.46 · 65 matches

TuS BW Königsdorf away — creates 1.48, concedes 1.92 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hürth attack 1.37 + TuS BW Königsdorf defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.65

TuS BW Königsdorf attack 1.48 + Hürth defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Hürth scores more
42%
level
24%
TuS BW Königsdorf scores more
34%

Hürth at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Hürth will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Mittelrhein: Hürth 2–2 TuS BW Königsdorf

Hürth and TuS BW Königsdorf drew 2-2 in Oberliga - Mittelrhein on September 30, 2023.

The match was played at Salus Park in Hürth.