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TuS BW Königsdorf vs Bonner SC — Oberliga - Mittelrhein 2020

TuS BW Königsdorf
TuS BW Königsdorf
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Bonner SC
Bonner SC
10/19/2024Oberliga - MittelrheinOberliga - Mittelrhein · Mittelrhein - 9Sportplatz Königsdorf

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

TuS BW Königsdorf35%
×Draw23%
Bonner SC42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

TuS BW Königsdorf
1.58
Bonner SC
1.76

Bonner SC creates 11% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 44 away

creates per match

TuS BW Königsdorf
2.08
Bonner SC
2.30

allows per match

TuS BW Königsdorf
1.22
Bonner SC
1.09

finishing

TuS BW Königsdorf+0.00on par
Bonner SC+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

TuS BW Königsdorf ↓

Bonner SC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

TuS BW Königsdorf or draw
58%
TuS BW Königsdorf or Bonner SC
77%
Draw or Bonner SC
65%

Winning margin

TuS BW Königsdorf wins by 2+
17%
Bonner SC wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

TuS BW Königsdorf 1+ goals
79%
TuS BW Königsdorf 2+ goals
47%
TuS BW Königsdorf 3+ goals
21%
Bonner SC 1+ goals
83%
Bonner SC 2+ goals
52%
Bonner SC 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

TuS BW Königsdorf (draw refunded)
45%
Bonner SC (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

TuS BW Königsdorf at home — creates 2.08, concedes 1.22 · 59 matches

Bonner SC away — creates 2.30, concedes 1.09 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

TuS BW Königsdorf attack 2.08 + Bonner SC defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.58

Bonner SC attack 2.30 + TuS BW Königsdorf defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

TuS BW Königsdorf scores more
35%
level
23%
Bonner SC scores more
42%

Bonner SC at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Bonner SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: TuS BW Königsdorf vs Bonner SC

Bonner SC beat TuS BW Königsdorf 1-0 in Oberliga - Mittelrhein on October 19, 2024.

The match was played at Sportplatz Königsdorf in Frechen.