Bonner SC 1–0 TuS BW Königsdorf: Result & Stats

Bonner SC

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

TuS BW Königsdorf

5/4/2025

Oberliga - Mittelrhein · Mittelrhein - 24Sportpark Nord

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Bonner SC62%

×Draw20%

TuS BW Königsdorf18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bonner SCExpected goals in this matchTuS BW Königsdorf

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.16

1.09

Bonner SC

2.16

TuS BW Königsdorf

1.09

Bonner SC creates 98% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 60 away

2.40

creates per match

1.48

0.71

allows per match

1.92

creates per match

Bonner SC

2.40

TuS BW Königsdorf

1.48

allows per match

Bonner SC

0.71

TuS BW Königsdorf

1.92

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bonner SC+0.00on par

TuS BW Königsdorf+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bonner SC ↓

TuS BW Königsdorf →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

63%37%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Bonner SC or draw

82%

Bonner SC or TuS BW Königsdorf

80%

Draw or TuS BW Königsdorf

38%

Winning margin

Bonner SC wins by 2+

38%

TuS BW Königsdorf wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Bonner SC 1+ goals

88%

Bonner SC 2+ goals

63%

Bonner SC 3+ goals

36%

TuS BW Königsdorf 1+ goals

66%

TuS BW Königsdorf 2+ goals

30%

TuS BW Königsdorf 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Bonner SC (draw refunded)

77%

TuS BW Königsdorf (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bonner SC at home — creates 2.40, concedes 0.71 · 45 matches

TuS BW Königsdorf away — creates 1.48, concedes 1.92 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bonner SC attack 2.40 + TuS BW Königsdorf defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 2.16

TuS BW Königsdorf attack 1.48 + Bonner SC defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Bonner SC scores more

62%

level

20%

TuS BW Königsdorf scores more

18%

Bonner SC at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Bonner SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff