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TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf vs SF Hamborn — Oberliga - Niederrhein 2020

TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf
TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
SF Hamborn
SF Hamborn
2/19/2023Oberliga - NiederrheinOberliga - Niederrhein · Niederrhein - 25Stadion an der Feuerbachstraße

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf42%
×Draw22%
SF Hamborn36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf
1.86
SF Hamborn
1.72

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 42 home / 37 away

creates per match

TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf
1.14
SF Hamborn
1.62

allows per match

TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf
1.81
SF Hamborn
2.59

finishing

TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf+0.00on par
SF Hamborn+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf ↓

SF Hamborn →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf or draw
64%
TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf or SF Hamborn
78%
Draw or SF Hamborn
58%

Winning margin

TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf wins by 2+
22%
SF Hamborn wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf 1+ goals
84%
TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf 2+ goals
55%
TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf 3+ goals
28%
SF Hamborn 1+ goals
82%
SF Hamborn 2+ goals
51%
SF Hamborn 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf (draw refunded)
54%
SF Hamborn (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.81 · 42 matches

SF Hamborn away — creates 1.62, concedes 2.59 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf attack 1.14 + SF Hamborn defence 2.59 → ÷2 → 1.86

SF Hamborn attack 1.62 + TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf scores more
42%
level
22%
SF Hamborn scores more
36%

TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf vs SF Hamborn

SF Hamborn beat TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf 3-1 in Oberliga - Niederrhein on February 19, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion an der Feuerbachstraße in Düsseldorf.