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SF Hamborn vs TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf — Oberliga - Niederrhein 2020

SF Hamborn
SF Hamborn
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf
TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf
8/21/2022Oberliga - NiederrheinOberliga - Niederrhein · Niederrhein - 4Bezirkssportanlage Im Holtkamp

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

SF Hamborn44%
×Draw24%
TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SF Hamborn
1.69
TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf
1.42

SF Hamborn creates 19% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 40 away

creates per match

SF Hamborn
1.44
TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf
1.20

allows per match

SF Hamborn
1.64
TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf
1.95

finishing

SF Hamborn+0.00on par
TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SF Hamborn ↓

TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

SF Hamborn or draw
68%
SF Hamborn or TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf
76%
Draw or TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf
56%

Winning margin

SF Hamborn wins by 2+
23%
TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

SF Hamborn 1+ goals
82%
SF Hamborn 2+ goals
50%
SF Hamborn 3+ goals
24%
TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf 1+ goals
76%
TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf 2+ goals
41%
TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

SF Hamborn (draw refunded)
58%
TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SF Hamborn at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.64 · 36 matches

TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.95 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SF Hamborn attack 1.44 + TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.69

TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf attack 1.20 + SF Hamborn defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

SF Hamborn scores more
44%
level
24%
TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf scores more
32%

SF Hamborn at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "SF Hamborn will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Niederrhein: SF Hamborn 1–2 TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf

TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf beat SF Hamborn 2-1 in Oberliga - Niederrhein on August 21, 2022.

The match was played at Bezirkssportanlage Im Holtkamp in Duisburg.