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TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf vs SF Baumberg — Oberliga - Niederrhein 2020

TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf
TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
SF Baumberg
SF Baumberg
4/10/2023Oberliga - NiederrheinOberliga - Niederrhein · Niederrhein - 33Stadion an der Feuerbachstraße

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf32%
×Draw22%
SF Baumberg46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf
1.53
SF Baumberg
1.86

SF Baumberg creates 22% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 95 away

creates per match

TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf
1.14
SF Baumberg
1.91

allows per match

TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf
1.81
SF Baumberg
1.93

finishing

TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf+0.00on par
SF Baumberg+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf ↓

SF Baumberg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf or draw
54%
TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf or SF Baumberg
78%
Draw or SF Baumberg
68%

Winning margin

TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf wins by 2+
15%
SF Baumberg wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf 1+ goals
78%
TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf 2+ goals
45%
TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf 3+ goals
20%
SF Baumberg 1+ goals
84%
SF Baumberg 2+ goals
55%
SF Baumberg 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf (draw refunded)
41%
SF Baumberg (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.81 · 42 matches

SF Baumberg away — creates 1.91, concedes 1.93 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf attack 1.14 + SF Baumberg defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.53

SF Baumberg attack 1.91 + TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf scores more
32%
level
22%
SF Baumberg scores more
46%

SF Baumberg at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "SF Baumberg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf vs SF Baumberg

SF Baumberg beat TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf 2-0 in Oberliga - Niederrhein on April 10, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion an der Feuerbachstraße in Düsseldorf.