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SF Baumberg vs TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf — Oberliga - Niederrhein 2020

SF Baumberg
SF Baumberg
CANC
14:00
TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf
TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf
2/7/2021Oberliga - NiederrheinOberliga - Niederrhein · Niederrhein - 24MEGA-Stadion Sandstraße

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

SF Baumberg55%
×Draw22%
TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SF Baumberg
2.02
TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf
1.25

SF Baumberg creates 62% more chances

Season form · 89 home / 40 away

creates per match

SF Baumberg
2.10
TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf
1.20

allows per match

SF Baumberg
1.29
TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf
1.95

finishing

SF Baumberg+0.00on par
TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SF Baumberg ↓

TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

SF Baumberg or draw
77%
SF Baumberg or TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf
78%
Draw or TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf
45%

Winning margin

SF Baumberg wins by 2+
32%
TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

SF Baumberg 1+ goals
87%
SF Baumberg 2+ goals
60%
SF Baumberg 3+ goals
33%
TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf 1+ goals
71%
TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf 2+ goals
36%
TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

SF Baumberg (draw refunded)
70%
TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SF Baumberg at home — creates 2.10, concedes 1.29 · 89 matches

TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.95 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SF Baumberg attack 2.10 + TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 2.02

TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf attack 1.20 + SF Baumberg defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

SF Baumberg scores more
55%
level
22%
TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf scores more
23%

SF Baumberg at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "SF Baumberg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

SF Baumberg vs TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf — Match Preview

SF Baumberg face TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf on February 7, 2021 in this Oberliga - Niederrhein fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

SF Baumberg host TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf at MEGA-Stadion Sandstraße.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.