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TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf vs Schonnebeck — Oberliga - Niederrhein 2020

TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf
TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Schonnebeck
Schonnebeck
9/21/2022Oberliga - NiederrheinOberliga - Niederrhein · Niederrhein - 9Stadion an der Feuerbachstraße

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf27%
×Draw22%
Schonnebeck50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf
1.35
Schonnebeck
1.91

Schonnebeck creates 41% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 91 away

creates per match

TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf
1.14
Schonnebeck
2.00

allows per match

TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf
1.81
Schonnebeck
1.57

finishing

TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf+0.00on par
Schonnebeck+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf ↓

Schonnebeck →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf or draw
50%
TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf or Schonnebeck
78%
Draw or Schonnebeck
73%

Winning margin

TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf wins by 2+
12%
Schonnebeck wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf 1+ goals
74%
TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf 2+ goals
39%
TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf 3+ goals
15%
Schonnebeck 1+ goals
85%
Schonnebeck 2+ goals
57%
Schonnebeck 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf (draw refunded)
35%
Schonnebeck (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.81 · 42 matches

Schonnebeck away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.57 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf attack 1.14 + Schonnebeck defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.35

Schonnebeck attack 2.00 + TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf scores more
27%
level
22%
Schonnebeck scores more
50%

Schonnebeck at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Schonnebeck will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf vs Schonnebeck

TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf and Schonnebeck drew 1-1 in Oberliga - Niederrhein on September 21, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion an der Feuerbachstraße in Düsseldorf.