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Schonnebeck vs TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf — Oberliga - Niederrhein 2020

Schonnebeck
Schonnebeck
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf
TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf
3/22/2023Oberliga - NiederrheinOberliga - Niederrhein · Niederrhein - 30Sportanlage Schetters Busch

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Schonnebeck60%
×Draw20%
TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Schonnebeck
2.31
TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf
1.30

Schonnebeck creates 78% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 40 away

creates per match

Schonnebeck
2.67
TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf
1.20

allows per match

Schonnebeck
1.41
TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf
1.95

finishing

Schonnebeck+0.00on par
TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Schonnebeck ↓

TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
70%30%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Schonnebeck or draw
79%
Schonnebeck or TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf
80%
Draw or TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf
40%

Winning margin

Schonnebeck wins by 2+
38%
TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Schonnebeck 1+ goals
90%
Schonnebeck 2+ goals
67%
Schonnebeck 3+ goals
40%
TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf 1+ goals
73%
TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf 2+ goals
37%
TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Schonnebeck (draw refunded)
74%
TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Schonnebeck at home — creates 2.67, concedes 1.41 · 90 matches

TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.95 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Schonnebeck attack 2.67 + TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 2.31

TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf attack 1.20 + Schonnebeck defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Schonnebeck scores more
60%
level
20%
TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf scores more
21%

Schonnebeck at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Schonnebeck will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Schonnebeck vs TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf

Schonnebeck beat TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf 2-0 in Oberliga - Niederrhein on March 22, 2023.

The match was played at Sportanlage Schetters Busch in Essen.