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TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf vs FSV Duisburg — Oberliga - Niederrhein 2020

TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf
TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf
FT
4 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
FSV Duisburg
FSV Duisburg
3/26/2023Oberliga - NiederrheinOberliga - Niederrhein · Niederrhein - 31Stadion an der Feuerbachstraße

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf50%
×Draw22%
FSV Duisburg27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf
1.92
FSV Duisburg
1.37

TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf creates 40% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 42 away

creates per match

TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf
1.14
FSV Duisburg
0.93

allows per match

TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf
1.81
FSV Duisburg
2.69

finishing

TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf+0.00on par
FSV Duisburg+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf ↓

FSV Duisburg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf or draw
73%
TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf or FSV Duisburg
78%
Draw or FSV Duisburg
50%

Winning margin

TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf wins by 2+
28%
FSV Duisburg wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf 1+ goals
85%
TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf 2+ goals
57%
TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf 3+ goals
30%
FSV Duisburg 1+ goals
75%
FSV Duisburg 2+ goals
40%
FSV Duisburg 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf (draw refunded)
65%
FSV Duisburg (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.81 · 42 matches

FSV Duisburg away — creates 0.93, concedes 2.69 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf attack 1.14 + FSV Duisburg defence 2.69 → ÷2 → 1.92

FSV Duisburg attack 0.93 + TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf scores more
50%
level
22%
FSV Duisburg scores more
27%

TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf vs FSV Duisburg

TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf beat FSV Duisburg 4-0 in Oberliga - Niederrhein on March 26, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion an der Feuerbachstraße in Düsseldorf.