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FSV Duisburg vs TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf — Oberliga - Niederrhein 2020

FSV Duisburg
FSV Duisburg
CANC
13:30
TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf
TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf
6/13/2021Oberliga - NiederrheinOberliga - Niederrhein · Niederrhein - 45Kunstrasenplatz FSV Duisburg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

FSV Duisburg38%
×Draw23%
TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FSV Duisburg
1.67
TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf
1.69

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 40 home / 40 away

creates per match

FSV Duisburg
1.38
TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf
1.20

allows per match

FSV Duisburg
2.17
TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf
1.95

finishing

FSV Duisburg+0.00on par
TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FSV Duisburg ↓

TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

FSV Duisburg or draw
61%
FSV Duisburg or TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf
77%
Draw or TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf
62%

Winning margin

FSV Duisburg wins by 2+
19%
TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

FSV Duisburg 1+ goals
81%
FSV Duisburg 2+ goals
50%
FSV Duisburg 3+ goals
23%
TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf 1+ goals
82%
TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf 2+ goals
50%
TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

FSV Duisburg (draw refunded)
49%
TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FSV Duisburg at home — creates 1.38, concedes 2.17 · 40 matches

TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.95 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FSV Duisburg attack 1.38 + TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.67

TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf attack 1.20 + FSV Duisburg defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

FSV Duisburg scores more
38%
level
23%
TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf scores more
39%

TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FSV Duisburg vs TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf — Match Preview

FSV Duisburg face TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf on June 13, 2021 in this Oberliga - Niederrhein fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

FSV Duisburg host TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf at Kunstrasenplatz FSV Duisburg.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.