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Turris vs Aprilia — Serie D - Girone G 2019

Turris
Turris
FT
3 – 1
Aprilia
Aprilia
2/2/2020Serie D - Girone GSerie D - Girone G · Round 22Stadio Amerigo Liguori (Torre del Greco)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Turris61%
×Draw21%
Aprilia19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Turris
2.11
Aprilia
1.08

Turris creates 95% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 47 away

creates per match

Turris
2.92
Aprilia
1.09

allows per match

Turris
1.08
Aprilia
1.30

finishing

Turris+0.00on par
Aprilia+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Turris ↓

Aprilia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Turris or draw
81%
Turris or Aprilia
79%
Draw or Aprilia
39%

Winning margin

Turris wins by 2+
37%
Aprilia wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Turris 1+ goals
88%
Turris 2+ goals
62%
Turris 3+ goals
35%
Aprilia 1+ goals
66%
Aprilia 2+ goals
29%
Aprilia 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Turris (draw refunded)
76%
Aprilia (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Turris at home — creates 2.92, concedes 1.08 · 13 matches

Aprilia away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.30 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Turris attack 2.92 + Aprilia defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 2.11

Aprilia attack 1.09 + Turris defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Turris scores more
61%
level
21%
Aprilia scores more
19%

Turris at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Turris will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Turris vs Aprilia

Turris beat Aprilia 3-1 in Serie D - Girone G on February 2, 2020.

The match was played at Stadio Amerigo Liguori (Torre del Greco).