Aprilia 2–2 Turris: Result & Stats

Aprilia

FT

2 – 2

Turris

9/29/2019

Serie D - Girone G · Round 5Stadio Quinto Ricci (Aprilia)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Aprilia22%

×Draw25%

Turris53%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ApriliaExpected goals in this matchTurris

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.97

1.64

Aprilia

0.97

Turris

1.64

Turris creates 69% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 13 away

1.17

creates per match

2.08

1.19

allows per match

0.77

creates per match

Aprilia

1.17

Turris

2.08

allows per match

Aprilia

1.19

Turris

0.77

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Aprilia+0.00on par

Turris+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aprilia ↓

Turris →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–112%

0–210%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–112%

1–210%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Aprilia or draw

47%

Aprilia or Turris

75%

Draw or Turris

78%

Winning margin

Aprilia wins by 2+

8%

Turris wins by 2+

28%

Team goals

Aprilia 1+ goals

62%

Aprilia 2+ goals

25%

Aprilia 3+ goals

7%

Turris 1+ goals

81%

Turris 2+ goals

49%

Turris 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Aprilia (draw refunded)

30%

Turris (draw refunded)

70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aprilia at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.19 · 47 matches

Turris away — creates 2.08, concedes 0.77 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aprilia attack 1.17 + Turris defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.97

Turris attack 2.08 + Aprilia defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Aprilia scores more

22%

level

25%

Turris scores more

53%

Turris at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Turris will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff