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Turris-Oltul T. Măgurele vs Sportul Snagov — Liga II 2018

Turris-Oltul T. Măgurele
Turris-Oltul T. Măgurele
CANC
08:00
Sportul Snagov
Sportul Snagov
5/16/2020Liga IILiga II · Round 36

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Turris-Oltul T. Măgurele52%
×Draw25%
Sportul Snagov23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Turris-Oltul T. Măgurele
1.65
Sportul Snagov
1.02

Turris-Oltul T. Măgurele creates 62% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 30 away

creates per match

Turris-Oltul T. Măgurele
1.52
Sportul Snagov
1.10

allows per match

Turris-Oltul T. Măgurele
0.95
Sportul Snagov
1.77

finishing

Turris-Oltul T. Măgurele+0.00on par
Sportul Snagov+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Turris-Oltul T. Măgurele ↓

Sportul Snagov →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Turris-Oltul T. Măgurele or draw
77%
Turris-Oltul T. Măgurele or Sportul Snagov
75%
Draw or Sportul Snagov
48%

Winning margin

Turris-Oltul T. Măgurele wins by 2+
28%
Sportul Snagov wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Turris-Oltul T. Măgurele 1+ goals
81%
Turris-Oltul T. Măgurele 2+ goals
49%
Turris-Oltul T. Măgurele 3+ goals
23%
Sportul Snagov 1+ goals
64%
Sportul Snagov 2+ goals
27%
Sportul Snagov 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Turris-Oltul T. Măgurele (draw refunded)
69%
Sportul Snagov (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Turris-Oltul T. Măgurele at home — creates 1.52, concedes 0.95 · 21 matches

Sportul Snagov away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.77 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Turris-Oltul T. Măgurele attack 1.52 + Sportul Snagov defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.65

Sportul Snagov attack 1.10 + Turris-Oltul T. Măgurele defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Turris-Oltul T. Măgurele scores more
52%
level
25%
Sportul Snagov scores more
23%

Turris-Oltul T. Măgurele at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Turris-Oltul T. Măgurele will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Turris-Oltul T. Măgurele host Sportul Snagov

May 16, 2020: Turris-Oltul T. Măgurele take on Sportul Snagov in Liga II. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.