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Sportul Snagov vs Turris-Oltul T. Măgurele — Liga II 2018

Sportul Snagov
Sportul Snagov
FT
2 – 3
HT: 2 – 0
Turris-Oltul T. Măgurele
Turris-Oltul T. Măgurele
11/13/2019Liga IILiga II · Round 17Stadionul Juventus

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Sportul Snagov34%
×Draw25%
Turris-Oltul T. Măgurele40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sportul Snagov
1.32
Turris-Oltul T. Măgurele
1.46

Turris-Oltul T. Măgurele creates 11% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 21 away

creates per match

Sportul Snagov
1.26
Turris-Oltul T. Măgurele
1.52

allows per match

Sportul Snagov
1.39
Turris-Oltul T. Măgurele
1.38

finishing

Sportul Snagov+0.00on par
Turris-Oltul T. Măgurele+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sportul Snagov ↓

Turris-Oltul T. Măgurele →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Sportul Snagov or draw
60%
Sportul Snagov or Turris-Oltul T. Măgurele
75%
Draw or Turris-Oltul T. Măgurele
66%

Winning margin

Sportul Snagov wins by 2+
15%
Turris-Oltul T. Măgurele wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Sportul Snagov 1+ goals
73%
Sportul Snagov 2+ goals
38%
Sportul Snagov 3+ goals
15%
Turris-Oltul T. Măgurele 1+ goals
77%
Turris-Oltul T. Măgurele 2+ goals
43%
Turris-Oltul T. Măgurele 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Sportul Snagov (draw refunded)
46%
Turris-Oltul T. Măgurele (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sportul Snagov at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.39 · 31 matches

Turris-Oltul T. Măgurele away — creates 1.52, concedes 1.38 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sportul Snagov attack 1.26 + Turris-Oltul T. Măgurele defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.32

Turris-Oltul T. Măgurele attack 1.52 + Sportul Snagov defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Sportul Snagov scores more
34%
level
25%
Turris-Oltul T. Măgurele scores more
40%

Turris-Oltul T. Măgurele at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Turris-Oltul T. Măgurele will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sportul Snagov vs Turris-Oltul T. Măgurele

Turris-Oltul T. Măgurele beat Sportul Snagov 3-2 in Liga II on November 13, 2019.

The match was played at Stadionul Juventus in Bucureşti.