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Turris-Oltul T. Măgurele vs Arges Pitesti — Liga II 2018

Turris-Oltul T. Măgurele
Turris-Oltul T. Măgurele
CANC
08:00
Arges Pitesti
Arges Pitesti
4/4/2020Liga IILiga II · Round 28Stadionul Municipal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Turris-Oltul T. Măgurele41%
×Draw29%
Arges Pitesti30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Turris-Oltul T. Măgurele
1.22
Arges Pitesti
0.99

Turris-Oltul T. Măgurele creates 23% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 62 away

creates per match

Turris-Oltul T. Măgurele
1.52
Arges Pitesti
1.03

allows per match

Turris-Oltul T. Măgurele
0.95
Arges Pitesti
0.92

finishing

Turris-Oltul T. Măgurele+0.00on par
Arges Pitesti+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Turris-Oltul T. Măgurele ↓

Arges Pitesti →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Turris-Oltul T. Măgurele or draw
70%
Turris-Oltul T. Măgurele or Arges Pitesti
71%
Draw or Arges Pitesti
59%

Winning margin

Turris-Oltul T. Măgurele wins by 2+
18%
Arges Pitesti wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Turris-Oltul T. Măgurele 1+ goals
70%
Turris-Oltul T. Măgurele 2+ goals
34%
Turris-Oltul T. Măgurele 3+ goals
12%
Arges Pitesti 1+ goals
63%
Arges Pitesti 2+ goals
26%
Arges Pitesti 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Turris-Oltul T. Măgurele (draw refunded)
58%
Arges Pitesti (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Turris-Oltul T. Măgurele at home — creates 1.52, concedes 0.95 · 21 matches

Arges Pitesti away — creates 1.03, concedes 0.92 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Turris-Oltul T. Măgurele attack 1.52 + Arges Pitesti defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.22

Arges Pitesti attack 1.03 + Turris-Oltul T. Măgurele defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Turris-Oltul T. Măgurele scores more
41%
level
29%
Arges Pitesti scores more
30%

Turris-Oltul T. Măgurele at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Turris-Oltul T. Măgurele will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Turris-Oltul T. Măgurele host Arges Pitesti

April 4, 2020: Turris-Oltul T. Măgurele take on Arges Pitesti in Liga II. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Turris-Oltul T. Măgurele host Arges Pitesti at Stadionul Municipal.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.