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Arges Pitesti vs Turris-Oltul T. Măgurele — Liga II 2018

Arges Pitesti
Arges Pitesti
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Turris-Oltul T. Măgurele
Turris-Oltul T. Măgurele
9/28/2019Liga IILiga II · Round 9Stadionul Municipal Nicolae Dobrin

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Arges Pitesti46%
×Draw26%
Turris-Oltul T. Măgurele29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Arges Pitesti
1.50
Turris-Oltul T. Măgurele
1.13

Arges Pitesti creates 33% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 21 away

creates per match

Arges Pitesti
1.61
Turris-Oltul T. Măgurele
1.52

allows per match

Arges Pitesti
0.73
Turris-Oltul T. Măgurele
1.38

finishing

Arges Pitesti+0.00on par
Turris-Oltul T. Măgurele+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arges Pitesti ↓

Turris-Oltul T. Măgurele →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Arges Pitesti or draw
71%
Arges Pitesti or Turris-Oltul T. Măgurele
74%
Draw or Turris-Oltul T. Măgurele
54%

Winning margin

Arges Pitesti wins by 2+
23%
Turris-Oltul T. Măgurele wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Arges Pitesti 1+ goals
78%
Arges Pitesti 2+ goals
44%
Arges Pitesti 3+ goals
19%
Turris-Oltul T. Măgurele 1+ goals
68%
Turris-Oltul T. Măgurele 2+ goals
31%
Turris-Oltul T. Măgurele 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Arges Pitesti (draw refunded)
62%
Turris-Oltul T. Măgurele (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arges Pitesti at home — creates 1.61, concedes 0.73 · 59 matches

Turris-Oltul T. Măgurele away — creates 1.52, concedes 1.38 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arges Pitesti attack 1.61 + Turris-Oltul T. Măgurele defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.50

Turris-Oltul T. Măgurele attack 1.52 + Arges Pitesti defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Arges Pitesti scores more
46%
level
26%
Turris-Oltul T. Măgurele scores more
29%

Arges Pitesti at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Arges Pitesti will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Arges Pitesti vs Turris-Oltul T. Măgurele

Arges Pitesti beat Turris-Oltul T. Măgurele 3-2 in Liga II on September 28, 2019.

The match was played at Stadionul Municipal Nicolae Dobrin in Piteşti.