Turriff United 1–5 Formartine United

Turriff United

FT

1 – 5

Formartine United

9/21/2019

FA Cup · 1st RoundThe Haughs

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Turriff United25%

×Draw20%

Formartine United56%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Turriff UnitedExpected goals in this matchFormartine United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

2.35

Turriff United

1.52

Formartine United

2.35

Formartine United creates 55% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 8 away

1.67

creates per match

2.38

2.33

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

Turriff United

1.67

Formartine United

2.38

allows per match

Turriff United

2.33

Formartine United

1.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Turriff United+0.00on par

Formartine United+0.00on par

Total goals

Over74
Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Turriff United ↓

Formartine United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–15%

0–26%

0–35%

0–43%

1

1–03%

1–18%

1–29%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–02%

2–16%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–23%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

74%26%3.5

54%46%4.5

34%66%

Double chance

Turriff United or draw

44%

Turriff United or Formartine United

80%

Draw or Formartine United

75%

Winning margin

Turriff United wins by 2+

11%

Formartine United wins by 2+

35%

Team goals

Turriff United 1+ goals

78%

Turriff United 2+ goals

45%

Turriff United 3+ goals

20%

Formartine United 1+ goals

90%

Formartine United 2+ goals

68%

Formartine United 3+ goals

41%

Draw no bet

Turriff United (draw refunded)

31%

Formartine United (draw refunded)

69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

63%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Turriff United at home — creates 1.67, concedes 2.33 · 3 matches

Formartine United away — creates 2.38, concedes 1.38 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Turriff United attack 1.67 + Formartine United defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.52

Formartine United attack 2.38 + Turriff United defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Turriff United scores more

25%

level

20%

Formartine United scores more

56%

Formartine United at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Formartine United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff