Formartine United 2–1 Turriff United

Formartine United

FT

2 – 1

Turriff United

12/21/2020

FA Cup · 2nd Preliminary RoundNorth Lodge Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Formartine United46%

×Draw22%

Turriff United31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Formartine UnitedExpected goals in this matchTurriff United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.88

1.52

Formartine United

1.88

Turriff United

1.52

Formartine United creates 24% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 8 away

1.50

creates per match

0.88

2.17

allows per match

2.25

creates per match

Formartine United

1.50

Turriff United

0.88

allows per match

Formartine United

2.17

Turriff United

2.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Formartine United+0.00on par

Turriff United+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Formartine United ↓

Turriff United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–27%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Formartine United or draw

69%

Formartine United or Turriff United

78%

Draw or Turriff United

54%

Winning margin

Formartine United wins by 2+

25%

Turriff United wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Formartine United 1+ goals

85%

Formartine United 2+ goals

56%

Formartine United 3+ goals

29%

Turriff United 1+ goals

78%

Turriff United 2+ goals

45%

Turriff United 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Formartine United (draw refunded)

59%

Turriff United (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Formartine United at home — creates 1.50, concedes 2.17 · 12 matches

Turriff United away — creates 0.88, concedes 2.25 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Formartine United attack 1.50 + Turriff United defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 1.88

Turriff United attack 0.88 + Formartine United defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Formartine United scores more

46%

level

22%

Turriff United scores more

31%

Formartine United at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Formartine United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff