Turrialba Fc 2–2 Puerto Golfito: Result & Stats

Turrialba Fc

FT

2 – 2

Puerto Golfito

3/13/2021

Liga de Ascenso · Clausura - 8Estadio Rafael Ángel Camacho

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 84+ matches

Turrialba Fc44%

×Draw24%

Puerto Golfito32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Turrialba FcExpected goals in this matchPuerto Golfito

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

1.32

Turrialba Fc

1.60

Puerto Golfito

1.32

Turrialba Fc creates 21% more chances

Season form · 101 home / 84 away

1.20

creates per match

0.92

1.73

allows per match

2.01

creates per match

Turrialba Fc

1.20

Puerto Golfito

0.92

allows per match

Turrialba Fc

1.73

Puerto Golfito

2.01

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Turrialba Fc+0.00on par

Puerto Golfito+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Turrialba Fc ↓

Puerto Golfito →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Turrialba Fc or draw

68%

Turrialba Fc or Puerto Golfito

76%

Draw or Puerto Golfito

56%

Winning margin

Turrialba Fc wins by 2+

22%

Puerto Golfito wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Turrialba Fc 1+ goals

80%

Turrialba Fc 2+ goals

47%

Turrialba Fc 3+ goals

22%

Puerto Golfito 1+ goals

73%

Puerto Golfito 2+ goals

38%

Puerto Golfito 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Turrialba Fc (draw refunded)

58%

Puerto Golfito (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Turrialba Fc at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.73 · 101 matches

Puerto Golfito away — creates 0.92, concedes 2.01 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Turrialba Fc attack 1.20 + Puerto Golfito defence 2.01 → ÷2 → 1.60

Puerto Golfito attack 0.92 + Turrialba Fc defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Turrialba Fc scores more

44%

level

24%

Puerto Golfito scores more

32%

Turrialba Fc at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Turrialba Fc will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff