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Puerto Golfito vs Turrialba Fc — Liga de Ascenso 2018

Puerto Golfito
Puerto Golfito
FT
1 – 1
Turrialba Fc
Turrialba Fc
2/9/2022Liga de AscensoLiga de Ascenso · Clausura - 6Estadio Municipal El Labrador de Coronado

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 87+ matches

Puerto Golfito51%
×Draw23%
Turrialba Fc26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Puerto Golfito
1.87
Turrialba Fc
1.29

Puerto Golfito creates 45% more chances

Season form · 87 home / 101 away

creates per match

Puerto Golfito
1.36
Turrialba Fc
0.86

allows per match

Puerto Golfito
1.72
Turrialba Fc
2.38

finishing

Puerto Golfito+0.00on par
Turrialba Fc+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Puerto Golfito ↓

Turrialba Fc →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Puerto Golfito or draw
74%
Puerto Golfito or Turrialba Fc
77%
Draw or Turrialba Fc
49%

Winning margin

Puerto Golfito wins by 2+
29%
Turrialba Fc wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Puerto Golfito 1+ goals
85%
Puerto Golfito 2+ goals
56%
Puerto Golfito 3+ goals
29%
Turrialba Fc 1+ goals
72%
Turrialba Fc 2+ goals
37%
Turrialba Fc 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Puerto Golfito (draw refunded)
66%
Turrialba Fc (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Puerto Golfito at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.72 · 87 matches

Turrialba Fc away — creates 0.86, concedes 2.38 · 101 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Puerto Golfito attack 1.36 + Turrialba Fc defence 2.38 → ÷2 → 1.87

Turrialba Fc attack 0.86 + Puerto Golfito defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Puerto Golfito scores more
51%
level
23%
Turrialba Fc scores more
26%

Puerto Golfito at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Puerto Golfito will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Puerto Golfito 1 – 1 Turrialba Fc

Puerto Golfito and Turrialba Fc drew 1-1 in Liga de Ascenso on February 9, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal El Labrador de Coronado in San Jose.