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Turrialba Fc vs Limon FC — Liga de Ascenso 2018

Turrialba Fc
Turrialba Fc
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 2
Limon FC
Limon FC
A. Saenz 85' (OG)
J. Ramirez 48'
A. A. Zapata Pizarro 36' (pen)
D. Barthley 4'
1/15/2023Liga de AscensoLiga de Ascenso · Clausura - 1Estadio Rafael Ángel Camacho

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Turrialba Fc27%
×Draw24%
Limon FC49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Turrialba Fc
1.19
Limon FC
1.71

Limon FC creates 44% more chances

Season form · 101 home / 16 away

creates per match

Turrialba Fc
1.20
Limon FC
1.69

allows per match

Turrialba Fc
1.73
Limon FC
1.19

finishing

Turrialba Fc+0.00on par
Limon FC+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Turrialba Fc ↓

Limon FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–28%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–210%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Turrialba Fc or draw
51%
Turrialba Fc or Limon FC
76%
Draw or Limon FC
73%

Winning margin

Turrialba Fc wins by 2+
11%
Limon FC wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Turrialba Fc 1+ goals
70%
Turrialba Fc 2+ goals
33%
Turrialba Fc 3+ goals
12%
Limon FC 1+ goals
82%
Limon FC 2+ goals
51%
Limon FC 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Turrialba Fc (draw refunded)
35%
Limon FC (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Turrialba Fc at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.73 · 101 matches

Limon FC away — creates 1.69, concedes 1.19 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Turrialba Fc attack 1.20 + Limon FC defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.19

Limon FC attack 1.69 + Turrialba Fc defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Turrialba Fc scores more
27%
level
24%
Limon FC scores more
49%

Limon FC at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Limon FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'
D. Barthley
36'
A. A. Zapata PizarroPenalty
48'
J. Ramirez
85'
A. SaenzOwn goal

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Turrialba Fc vs Limon FC

Limon FC beat Turrialba Fc 4-0 in Liga de Ascenso on January 15, 2023.

Goals: D. Barthley (4'), A. A. Zapata Pizarro (36' pen), J. Ramirez (48'), A. Saenz (85' o.g.).

The match was played at Estadio Rafael Ángel Camacho in Turrialba.