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Limon FC vs Turrialba Fc — Liga de Ascenso 2018

Limon FC
Limon FC
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Turrialba Fc
Turrialba Fc
E. Scoby 32'
F. Alfaro 1'
2/26/2023Liga de AscensoLiga de Ascenso · Clausura - 10Estadio Juan Gobán Quirós

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Limon FC65%
×Draw19%
Turrialba Fc16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Limon FC
2.22
Turrialba Fc
0.99

Limon FC creates 124% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 101 away

creates per match

Limon FC
2.06
Turrialba Fc
0.86

allows per match

Limon FC
1.13
Turrialba Fc
2.38

finishing

Limon FC+0.00on par
Turrialba Fc+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Limon FC ↓

Turrialba Fc →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Limon FC or draw
84%
Limon FC or Turrialba Fc
81%
Draw or Turrialba Fc
35%

Winning margin

Limon FC wins by 2+
42%
Turrialba Fc wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Limon FC 1+ goals
89%
Limon FC 2+ goals
65%
Limon FC 3+ goals
38%
Turrialba Fc 1+ goals
63%
Turrialba Fc 2+ goals
26%
Turrialba Fc 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Limon FC (draw refunded)
81%
Turrialba Fc (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Limon FC at home — creates 2.06, concedes 1.13 · 16 matches

Turrialba Fc away — creates 0.86, concedes 2.38 · 101 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Limon FC attack 2.06 + Turrialba Fc defence 2.38 → ÷2 → 2.22

Turrialba Fc attack 0.86 + Limon FC defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Limon FC scores more
65%
level
19%
Turrialba Fc scores more
16%

Limon FC at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Limon FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

1'
F. Alfaro
32'
E. Scoby

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga de Ascenso: Limon FC 2–0 Turrialba Fc

Limon FC beat Turrialba Fc 2-0 in Liga de Ascenso on February 26, 2023.

Goals: F. Alfaro (1'), E. Scoby (32').

The match was played at Estadio Juan Gobán Quirós in Limón.