Turrialba Fc 1–0 Futbol Consultants Moravia

Turrialba Fc

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Futbol Consultants Moravia

8/11/2024

Liga de Ascenso · Apertura - 2Estadio Rafael Ángel Camacho

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 101+ matches

Turrialba Fc37%

×Draw25%

Futbol Consultants Moravia38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Turrialba FcExpected goals in this matchFutbol Consultants Moravia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

1.46

Turrialba Fc

1.42

Futbol Consultants Moravia

1.46

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 101 home / 124 away

1.20

creates per match

1.18

1.73

allows per match

1.65

creates per match

Turrialba Fc

1.20

Futbol Consultants Moravia

1.18

allows per match

Turrialba Fc

1.73

Futbol Consultants Moravia

1.65

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Turrialba Fc+0.00on par

Futbol Consultants Moravia+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Turrialba Fc ↓

Futbol Consultants Moravia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Turrialba Fc or draw

62%

Turrialba Fc or Futbol Consultants Moravia

75%

Draw or Futbol Consultants Moravia

63%

Winning margin

Turrialba Fc wins by 2+

17%

Futbol Consultants Moravia wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Turrialba Fc 1+ goals

76%

Turrialba Fc 2+ goals

41%

Turrialba Fc 3+ goals

17%

Futbol Consultants Moravia 1+ goals

77%

Futbol Consultants Moravia 2+ goals

43%

Futbol Consultants Moravia 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Turrialba Fc (draw refunded)

49%

Futbol Consultants Moravia (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Turrialba Fc at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.73 · 101 matches

Futbol Consultants Moravia away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.65 · 124 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Turrialba Fc attack 1.20 + Futbol Consultants Moravia defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.42

Futbol Consultants Moravia attack 1.18 + Turrialba Fc defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Turrialba Fc scores more

37%

level

25%

Futbol Consultants Moravia scores more

38%

Futbol Consultants Moravia at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Futbol Consultants Moravia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff