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Futbol Consultants Moravia vs Turrialba Fc — Liga de Ascenso 2018

Futbol Consultants Moravia
Futbol Consultants Moravia
FT
4 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Turrialba Fc
Turrialba Fc
1/25/2025Liga de AscensoLiga de Ascenso · Clausura - 2Estadio Jorge Palmareño Solís

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 101+ matches

Futbol Consultants Moravia58%
×Draw22%
Turrialba Fc20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Futbol Consultants Moravia
1.96
Turrialba Fc
1.06

Futbol Consultants Moravia creates 85% more chances

Season form · 126 home / 101 away

creates per match

Futbol Consultants Moravia
1.53
Turrialba Fc
0.86

allows per match

Futbol Consultants Moravia
1.27
Turrialba Fc
2.38

finishing

Futbol Consultants Moravia+0.00on par
Turrialba Fc+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Futbol Consultants Moravia ↓

Turrialba Fc →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Futbol Consultants Moravia or draw
80%
Futbol Consultants Moravia or Turrialba Fc
78%
Draw or Turrialba Fc
42%

Winning margin

Futbol Consultants Moravia wins by 2+
34%
Turrialba Fc wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Futbol Consultants Moravia 1+ goals
86%
Futbol Consultants Moravia 2+ goals
58%
Futbol Consultants Moravia 3+ goals
31%
Turrialba Fc 1+ goals
65%
Turrialba Fc 2+ goals
29%
Turrialba Fc 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Futbol Consultants Moravia (draw refunded)
74%
Turrialba Fc (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Futbol Consultants Moravia at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.27 · 126 matches

Turrialba Fc away — creates 0.86, concedes 2.38 · 101 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Futbol Consultants Moravia attack 1.53 + Turrialba Fc defence 2.38 → ÷2 → 1.96

Turrialba Fc attack 0.86 + Futbol Consultants Moravia defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Futbol Consultants Moravia scores more
58%
level
22%
Turrialba Fc scores more
20%

Futbol Consultants Moravia at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Futbol Consultants Moravia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga de Ascenso: Futbol Consultants Moravia 4–2 Turrialba Fc

Futbol Consultants Moravia beat Turrialba Fc 4-2 in Liga de Ascenso on January 25, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Jorge Palmareño Solís in Palmares.