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Turrialba Fc vs Antioquia — Liga de Ascenso 2018

Turrialba Fc
Turrialba Fc
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Antioquia
Antioquia
3/21/2025Liga de AscensoLiga de Ascenso · Clausura - 13Estadio Rafael Ángel Camacho

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Turrialba Fc41%
×Draw24%
Antioquia35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Turrialba Fc
1.57
Antioquia
1.44

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 101 home / 32 away

creates per match

Turrialba Fc
1.20
Antioquia
1.16

allows per match

Turrialba Fc
1.73
Antioquia
1.94

finishing

Turrialba Fc+0.00on par
Antioquia+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Turrialba Fc ↓

Antioquia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Turrialba Fc or draw
65%
Turrialba Fc or Antioquia
76%
Draw or Antioquia
59%

Winning margin

Turrialba Fc wins by 2+
20%
Antioquia wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Turrialba Fc 1+ goals
79%
Turrialba Fc 2+ goals
46%
Turrialba Fc 3+ goals
21%
Antioquia 1+ goals
76%
Antioquia 2+ goals
42%
Antioquia 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Turrialba Fc (draw refunded)
54%
Antioquia (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Turrialba Fc at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.73 · 101 matches

Antioquia away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.94 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Turrialba Fc attack 1.20 + Antioquia defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.57

Antioquia attack 1.16 + Turrialba Fc defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Turrialba Fc scores more
41%
level
24%
Antioquia scores more
35%

Turrialba Fc at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Turrialba Fc will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Turrialba Fc vs Antioquia

Turrialba Fc and Antioquia drew 1-1 in Liga de Ascenso on March 21, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Rafael Ángel Camacho in Turrialba.