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Antioquia vs Turrialba Fc — Liga de Ascenso 2018

Antioquia
Antioquia
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Turrialba Fc
Turrialba Fc
10/3/2024Liga de AscensoLiga de Ascenso · Apertura - 13Estadio CDI José Joaquín Colleya Fonseca

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Antioquia53%
×Draw22%
Turrialba Fc25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Antioquia
1.92
Turrialba Fc
1.24

Antioquia creates 55% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 101 away

creates per match

Antioquia
1.47
Turrialba Fc
0.86

allows per match

Antioquia
1.63
Turrialba Fc
2.38

finishing

Antioquia+0.00on par
Turrialba Fc+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Antioquia ↓

Turrialba Fc →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Antioquia or draw
75%
Antioquia or Turrialba Fc
78%
Draw or Turrialba Fc
47%

Winning margin

Antioquia wins by 2+
30%
Turrialba Fc wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Antioquia 1+ goals
85%
Antioquia 2+ goals
57%
Antioquia 3+ goals
30%
Turrialba Fc 1+ goals
71%
Turrialba Fc 2+ goals
35%
Turrialba Fc 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Antioquia (draw refunded)
68%
Turrialba Fc (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Antioquia at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.63 · 32 matches

Turrialba Fc away — creates 0.86, concedes 2.38 · 101 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Antioquia attack 1.47 + Turrialba Fc defence 2.38 → ÷2 → 1.92

Turrialba Fc attack 0.86 + Antioquia defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Antioquia scores more
53%
level
22%
Turrialba Fc scores more
25%

Antioquia at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Antioquia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Antioquia 0 – 2 Turrialba Fc

Turrialba Fc beat Antioquia 2-0 in Liga de Ascenso on October 3, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio CDI José Joaquín Colleya Fonseca in San José.