Turku PS 3–2 TPV: Result & Stats | Ykkönen

Turku PS

FT

3 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

TPV

E. Espinosa 61'

O. Jakonen 51'

G. Ositashvili 25' (OG)

E. Kolu 88'

A. Goljahanpoor 65'

8/30/2019

Ykkönen · Round 11Veritas Stadion (Turku (Åbo))

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Turku PS61%

×Draw20%

TPV18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Turku PSExpected goals in this matchTPV

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.13

1.07

Turku PS

2.13

TPV

1.07

Turku PS creates 99% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 21 away

1.93

creates per match

1.10

1.04

allows per match

2.33

creates per match

Turku PS

1.93

TPV

1.10

allows per match

Turku PS

1.04

TPV

2.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Turku PS+0.00on par

TPV+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Turku PS ↓

TPV →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Turku PS or draw

82%

Turku PS or TPV

80%

Draw or TPV

39%

Winning margin

Turku PS wins by 2+

38%

TPV wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Turku PS 1+ goals

88%

Turku PS 2+ goals

63%

Turku PS 3+ goals

35%

TPV 1+ goals

66%

TPV 2+ goals

29%

TPV 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Turku PS (draw refunded)

77%

TPV (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Turku PS at home — creates 1.93, concedes 1.04 · 56 matches

TPV away — creates 1.10, concedes 2.33 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Turku PS attack 1.93 + TPV defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.13

TPV attack 1.10 + Turku PS defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Turku PS scores more

61%

level

20%

TPV scores more

18%

Turku PS at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Turku PS will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

25'

G. OsitashviliOwn goal

51'

61'

65'

68'

68'

J. Oksanen← M. Severino

71'

S. Duah← O. Jakonen

77'

J. Peräaho← M. Hradecky

85'

R. Kostiainen← M. Ahonen

86'

T. Hradecký← J. Latonen

88'

E. Kolu

Turku

TPV

12

Kuusinen

13

🥅

2

3

24

5

10

▼

Näykki

9

⚽

Goljahanp

20

⚽

Kolu

21

▼

Ahonen

26

▼

1

7

25

4

33

13

▼

Hradecky

2

Moundi

11

Ääritalo

9

⚽

▼

Jakonen

17

⚽

Espinosa

23

▼

Latonen

Manager: T. Pikkarainen

71'▲S. Duah←▼O. Jakonen

77'▲J. Peräaho←▼M. Hradecky

86'▲T. Hradecký←▼J. Latonen

Turku PS substitutes

21Duah6Peräaho12Hradecký8Mäkitalo19Vesiaho22Ollikainen30Koponen

Manager: A. Ylinen

68'▲R. Oras←▼P. Näykki

68'▲J. Oksanen←▼M. Severino

85'▲R. Kostiainen←▼M. Ahonen

TPV substitutes

16Oras17Oksanen15Kostiainen1Karjanlahti4Siren14Räisänen25Mattila

Match Recap: Turku PS vs TPV

Turku PS beat TPV 3-2 in Ykkönen on August 30, 2019.

Goals: G. Ositashvili (25' o.g.), O. Jakonen (51'), E. Espinosa (61'), A. Goljahanpoor (65'), E. Kolu (88').

The match was played at Veritas Stadion (Turku (Åbo)).

Turku PS vs TPV — Ykkönen 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Turku PS vs TPV