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Turku PS vs TPV — Suomen Cup 2018

Turku PS
Turku PS
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
TPV
TPV
1/25/2019Suomen CupSuomen Cup · Group Stage - 1Javenture-Areena (Turku (Åbo))

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Turku PS10%
×Draw13%
TPV77%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Turku PS
1.08
TPV
3.17

TPV creates 194% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 12 away

creates per match

Turku PS
1.25
TPV
5.75

allows per match

Turku PS
0.58
TPV
0.92

finishing

Turku PS+0.00on par
TPV+0.00on par

Total goals

79%Over
  • Over79
  • Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Turku PS ↓

TPV →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–15%
0–27%
0–38%
0–46%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–28%
1–39%
1–47%
2
2–01%
2–13%
2–24%
2–35%
2–44%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–3 (9%) · grid covers 82% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
92%8%2.5
79%21%3.5
60%40%4.5
39%61%

Double chance

Turku PS or draw
23%
Turku PS or TPV
87%
Draw or TPV
90%

Winning margin

Turku PS wins by 2+
3%
TPV wins by 2+
58%

Team goals

Turku PS 1+ goals
66%
Turku PS 2+ goals
29%
Turku PS 3+ goals
10%
TPV 1+ goals
96%
TPV 2+ goals
82%
TPV 3+ goals
60%

Draw no bet

Turku PS (draw refunded)
11%
TPV (draw refunded)
89%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Turku PS at home — creates 1.25, concedes 0.58 · 12 matches

TPV away — creates 5.75, concedes 0.92 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Turku PS attack 1.25 + TPV defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.08

TPV attack 5.75 + Turku PS defence 0.58 → ÷2 → 3.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 77%?"

Turku PS scores more
10%
level
13%
TPV scores more
77%

TPV at 77% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 77% does not mean "TPV will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Turku PS vs TPV

Turku PS beat TPV 2-0 in Suomen Cup on January 25, 2019.

The match was played at Javenture-Areena (Turku (Åbo)).