Turku PS 1–0 MP: Result & Stats | Suomen Cup

Turku PS

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

U. Muhammed 65'

6/15/2024

Suomen Cup · 5th RoundVeritas Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Turku PS26%

×Draw22%

MP52%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Turku PSExpected goals in this matchMP

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

2.02

Turku PS

1.39

2.02

MP creates 45% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 17 away

1.25

creates per match

3.47

0.58

allows per match

1.53

creates per match

Turku PS

1.25

3.47

allows per match

Turku PS

0.58

1.53

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Turku PS+0.00on par

MP+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Turku PS ↓

MP →

0–03%

0–17%

0–27%

0–35%

0–42%

1–05%

1–19%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2–03%

2–16%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3–01%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Turku PS or draw

48%

Turku PS or MP

78%

Draw or MP

74%

Winning margin

Turku PS wins by 2+

11%

MP wins by 2+

30%

Team goals

Turku PS 1+ goals

75%

Turku PS 2+ goals

40%

Turku PS 3+ goals

16%

MP 1+ goals

87%

MP 2+ goals

60%

MP 3+ goals

33%

Draw no bet

Turku PS (draw refunded)

34%

MP (draw refunded)

66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Turku PS at home — creates 1.25, concedes 0.58 · 12 matches

MP away — creates 3.47, concedes 1.53 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Turku PS attack 1.25 + MP defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.39

MP attack 3.47 + Turku PS defence 0.58 → ÷2 → 2.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 52%?"

Turku PS scores more

26%

level

22%

MP scores more

52%

MP at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "MP will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

27'

A. Bostrom

38'

V. Maatta

46'

N. Levis← V. Määttä

58'

O. Kilpelainen

59'

A. Soiniemi← J. Lakkamäki

59'

J. Karlsson← L. Ikonen

59'

R. Riski← T. Pippola

61'

R. Pakkanen

62'

E. Ylonen

62'

A. Deng← O. Kilpeläinen

62'

K. Viramäki← V. Karttunen

65'

U. Muhammed

78'

O. Helen← A. Ulmanen

78'

J. Laitinen← R. Lehtonen

80'

J. Heinonen

86'

E. Collin

86'

A. Sihvonen← A. Boström

87'

Turku

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Manager: M. Nuutinen

59'▲A. Soiniemi←▼J. Lakkamäki

59'▲J. Karlsson←▼L. Ikonen

59'▲R. Riski←▼T. Pippola

78'▲O. Helen←▼A. Ulmanen

86'▲A. Sihvonen←▼A. Boström

Turku PS substitutes

SoiniemiKarlssonRiskiHelenSihvonenMuzaciNiemelä

Manager: J. Pasoja

46'▲N. Levis←▼V. Määttä

62'▲A. Deng←▼O. Kilpeläinen

62'▲K. Viramäki←▼V. Karttunen

78'▲J. Laitinen←▼R. Lehtonen

MP substitutes

LevisDengViramäkiLaitinenHiltunen

Turku PS 1 – 0 MP

Turku PS beat MP 1-0 in Suomen Cup on June 15, 2024.

Goals: U. Muhammed (65').

The match was played at Veritas Stadion in Åbo.

Turku PS vs MP — Suomen Cup 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Turku PS 1 – 0 MP