Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

MP vs Turku PS — Ykkönen 2026

MP
MP
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Turku PS
Turku PS
10/7/2023YkkönenYkkönen · Promotion Group - 5Mikkelin Urheilupuisto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

MP39%
×Draw26%
Turku PS35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

MP
1.34
Turku PS
1.26

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 68 home / 53 away

creates per match

MP
1.75
Turku PS
1.38

allows per match

MP
1.15
Turku PS
0.94

finishing

MP+0.00on par
Turku PS+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

MP ↓

Turku PS →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

MP or draw
65%
MP or Turku PS
74%
Draw or Turku PS
61%

Winning margin

MP wins by 2+
18%
Turku PS wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

MP 1+ goals
74%
MP 2+ goals
39%
MP 3+ goals
15%
Turku PS 1+ goals
72%
Turku PS 2+ goals
36%
Turku PS 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

MP (draw refunded)
53%
Turku PS (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

MP at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.15 · 68 matches

Turku PS away — creates 1.38, concedes 0.94 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

MP attack 1.75 + Turku PS defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.34

Turku PS attack 1.38 + MP defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

MP scores more
39%
level
26%
Turku PS scores more
35%

MP at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "MP will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: MP vs Turku PS

MP beat Turku PS 2-1 in Ykkönen on October 7, 2023.

The match was played at Mikkelin Urheilupuisto in Mikkeli.