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Turku PS vs Ilves II — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Turku PS
Turku PS
CANC
14:15
Ilves II
Ilves II
1/22/2022Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3LähiTapiola-areena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Turku PS69%
×Draw16%
Ilves II14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Turku PS
2.72
Ilves II
1.17

Turku PS creates 132% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 3 away

creates per match

Turku PS
1.11
Ilves II
1.67

allows per match

Turku PS
0.67
Ilves II
4.33

finishing

Turku PS+0.00on par
Ilves II+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Turku PS ↓

Ilves II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–17%
1–24%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–05%
4–16%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
53%47%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

Turku PS or draw
86%
Turku PS or Ilves II
84%
Draw or Ilves II
31%

Winning margin

Turku PS wins by 2+
48%
Ilves II wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Turku PS 1+ goals
93%
Turku PS 2+ goals
75%
Turku PS 3+ goals
50%
Ilves II 1+ goals
69%
Ilves II 2+ goals
33%
Ilves II 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Turku PS (draw refunded)
83%
Ilves II (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Turku PS at home — creates 1.11, concedes 0.67 · 9 matches

Ilves II away — creates 1.67, concedes 4.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Turku PS attack 1.11 + Ilves II defence 4.33 → ÷2 → 2.72

Ilves II attack 1.67 + Turku PS defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Turku PS scores more
69%
level
16%
Ilves II scores more
14%

Turku PS at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Turku PS will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Turku PS host Ilves II

January 22, 2022: Turku PS take on Ilves II in Friendlies Clubs. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Turku PS host Ilves II at LähiTapiola-areena.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.