Ilves II 1–3 Turku PS: Result & Stats | Suomen Cup

Ilves II

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Turku PS

5/6/2025

Suomen Cup · 4th RoundTammelan Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Ilves II18%

×Draw20%

Turku PS62%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ilves IIExpected goals in this matchTurku PS

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.09

2.17

Ilves II

1.09

Turku PS

2.17

Turku PS creates 99% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 17 away

1.00

creates per match

2.00

2.33

allows per match

1.18

creates per match

Ilves II

1.00

Turku PS

2.00

allows per match

Ilves II

2.33

Turku PS

1.18

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ilves II+0.00on par

Turku PS+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ilves II ↓

Turku PS →

0–04%

0–18%

0–29%

0–37%

0–44%

1–04%

1–19%

1–210%

1–37%

1–44%

2–02%

2–15%

2–25%

2–34%

2–42%

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4–00%

4–10%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Ilves II or draw

38%

Ilves II or Turku PS

80%

Draw or Turku PS

82%

Winning margin

Ilves II wins by 2+

Turku PS wins by 2+

39%

Team goals

Ilves II 1+ goals

66%

Ilves II 2+ goals

30%

Ilves II 3+ goals

10%

Turku PS 1+ goals

89%

Turku PS 2+ goals

64%

Turku PS 3+ goals

36%

Draw no bet

Ilves II (draw refunded)

23%

Turku PS (draw refunded)

77%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Ilves II at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.33 · 3 matches

Turku PS away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.18 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Ilves II attack 1.00 + Turku PS defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.09

Turku PS attack 2.00 + Ilves II defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 62%?"

Ilves II scores more

18%

level

20%

Turku PS scores more

62%

Turku PS at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Turku PS will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff