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Turku PS vs Ilves — Suomen Cup 2018

Turku PS
Turku PS
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Ilves
Ilves
4/26/2023Suomen CupSuomen Cup · 3rd RoundUrheilupuiston Yläkenttä

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Turku PS31%
×Draw26%
Ilves43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Turku PS
1.16
Ilves
1.43

Ilves creates 23% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 18 away

creates per match

Turku PS
1.25
Ilves
2.28

allows per match

Turku PS
0.58
Ilves
1.06

finishing

Turku PS+0.00on par
Ilves+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Turku PS ↓

Ilves →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Turku PS or draw
57%
Turku PS or Ilves
74%
Draw or Ilves
69%

Winning margin

Turku PS wins by 2+
12%
Ilves wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Turku PS 1+ goals
69%
Turku PS 2+ goals
32%
Turku PS 3+ goals
11%
Ilves 1+ goals
76%
Ilves 2+ goals
42%
Ilves 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Turku PS (draw refunded)
41%
Ilves (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Turku PS at home — creates 1.25, concedes 0.58 · 12 matches

Ilves away — creates 2.28, concedes 1.06 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Turku PS attack 1.25 + Ilves defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.16

Ilves attack 2.28 + Turku PS defence 0.58 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Turku PS scores more
31%
level
26%
Ilves scores more
43%

Ilves at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Ilves will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Suomen Cup: Turku PS 0–2 Ilves

Ilves beat Turku PS 2-0 in Suomen Cup on April 26, 2023.

The match was played at Urheilupuiston Yläkenttä in Åbo.