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Ilves vs Turku PS — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Ilves
Ilves
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Turku PS
Turku PS
L. Ala-Myllymaki 65'
S. Haarala 35'
3/25/2023Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Kauppi tekonurmi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Ilves67%
×Draw19%
Turku PS14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ilves
2.16
Turku PS
0.85

Ilves creates 154% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 8 away

creates per match

Ilves
2.44
Turku PS
1.38

allows per match

Ilves
0.33
Turku PS
1.88

finishing

Ilves+0.00on par
Turku PS+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ilves ↓

Turku PS →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Ilves or draw
86%
Ilves or Turku PS
81%
Draw or Turku PS
33%

Winning margin

Ilves wins by 2+
43%
Turku PS wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Ilves 1+ goals
88%
Ilves 2+ goals
63%
Ilves 3+ goals
36%
Turku PS 1+ goals
57%
Turku PS 2+ goals
21%
Turku PS 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Ilves (draw refunded)
83%
Turku PS (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ilves at home — creates 2.44, concedes 0.33 · 9 matches

Turku PS away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.88 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ilves attack 2.44 + Turku PS defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 2.16

Turku PS attack 1.38 + Ilves defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Ilves scores more
67%
level
19%
Turku PS scores more
14%

Ilves at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Ilves will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

35'
S. Haarala
65'
L. Ala-Myllymaki

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Clubs: Ilves 2–0 Turku PS

Ilves beat Turku PS 2-0 in Friendlies Clubs on March 25, 2023.

Goals: S. Haarala (35'), L. Ala-Myllymaki (65').

The match was played at Kauppi tekonurmi in Tampere.