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Turku PS vs Haka — Suomen Cup 2018

Turku PS
Turku PS
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Haka
Haka
5/4/2022Suomen CupSuomen Cup · 4th RoundKupittaan Kentät

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Turku PS25%
×Draw26%
Haka49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Turku PS
1.02
Haka
1.53

Haka creates 50% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 25 away

creates per match

Turku PS
1.25
Haka
2.48

allows per match

Turku PS
0.58
Haka
0.80

finishing

Turku PS+0.00on par
Haka+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Turku PS ↓

Haka →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–112%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Turku PS or draw
51%
Turku PS or Haka
74%
Draw or Haka
75%

Winning margin

Turku PS wins by 2+
9%
Haka wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Turku PS 1+ goals
64%
Turku PS 2+ goals
27%
Turku PS 3+ goals
8%
Haka 1+ goals
78%
Haka 2+ goals
45%
Haka 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Turku PS (draw refunded)
34%
Haka (draw refunded)
66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Turku PS at home — creates 1.25, concedes 0.58 · 12 matches

Haka away — creates 2.48, concedes 0.80 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Turku PS attack 1.25 + Haka defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.02

Haka attack 2.48 + Turku PS defence 0.58 → ÷2 → 1.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Turku PS scores more
25%
level
26%
Haka scores more
49%

Haka at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Haka will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Turku PS 1 – 1 Haka

Turku PS and Haka drew 1-1 in Suomen Cup on May 4, 2022.

The match was played at Kupittaan Kentät in Åbo.