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Turku PS vs Haka — Veikkausliiga 2026

Turku PS
Turku PS
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
Haka
Haka
9/9/2020VeikkausliigaVeikkausliiga · Round 13Veritas Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Turku PS44%
×Draw26%
Haka30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Turku PS
1.47
Haka
1.18

Turku PS creates 25% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 81 away

creates per match

Turku PS
1.35
Haka
1.25

allows per match

Turku PS
1.11
Haka
1.58

finishing

Turku PS+0.00on par
Haka+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Turku PS ↓

Haka →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Turku PS or draw
70%
Turku PS or Haka
74%
Draw or Haka
56%

Winning margin

Turku PS wins by 2+
21%
Haka wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Turku PS 1+ goals
77%
Turku PS 2+ goals
43%
Turku PS 3+ goals
18%
Haka 1+ goals
69%
Haka 2+ goals
33%
Haka 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Turku PS (draw refunded)
59%
Haka (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Turku PS at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.11 · 37 matches

Haka away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.58 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Turku PS attack 1.35 + Haka defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.47

Haka attack 1.25 + Turku PS defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Turku PS scores more
44%
level
26%
Haka scores more
30%

Turku PS at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Turku PS will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Turku PS vs Haka

Haka beat Turku PS 3-2 in Veikkausliiga on September 9, 2020.

The match was played at Veritas Stadion in Åbo.