Turku PS 2–3 Haka: Result & Stats | Ykkönen

Turku PS

FT

2 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Haka

M. Hradecky 88'

E. Espinosa 53'

V. Starck 83'

S. Ojala 43', 35'

7/20/2019

Ykkönen · Round 8Veritas Stadion (Turku (Åbo))

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Turku PS36%

×Draw24%

Haka40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Turku PSExpected goals in this matchHaka

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.56

Turku PS

1.48

Haka

1.56

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 56 home / 23 away

1.86

creates per match

2.04

1.07

allows per match

1.09

creates per match

Turku PS

1.86

Haka

2.04

allows per match

Turku PS

1.07

Haka

1.09

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Turku PS+0.00on par

Haka+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Turku PS ↓

Haka →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Turku PS or draw

60%

Turku PS or Haka

76%

Draw or Haka

64%

Winning margin

Turku PS wins by 2+

17%

Haka wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Turku PS 1+ goals

77%

Turku PS 2+ goals

43%

Turku PS 3+ goals

19%

Haka 1+ goals

79%

Haka 2+ goals

46%

Haka 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Turku PS (draw refunded)

48%

Haka (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Turku PS at home — creates 1.86, concedes 1.07 · 56 matches

Haka away — creates 2.04, concedes 1.09 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Turku PS attack 1.86 + Haka defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.48

Haka attack 2.04 + Turku PS defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Turku PS scores more

36%

level

24%

Haka scores more

40%

Haka at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Haka will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

30'

J. Bushue

35'

S. Ojala

43'

S. Ojala

46'

E. Espinosa← J. Peräaho

53'

E. Espinosa

58'

J. Kyöstilä← T. Purme

60'

M. Hradecky← V. Vesiaho

68'

J. Latonen

69'

T. Varmanen

69'

E. Ahde← J. Tapani

73'

O. Jakonen← J. Latonen

79'

J. Thusberg← A. Hilska

83'

V. Starck

88'

M. Hradecky

90'

H. Malundama

Turku

Haka

1

Aaltonen

4

⚽

3

6

14

20

18

▼

Tapani

15

▼

Purme

7

▼

Hilska

10

Chidi

23

⚽2

1

7

25

4

19

▼

Vesiaho

33

Varmanen

6

▼

2

11

16

23

▼

Latonen

Manager: T. Pikkarainen

46'▲E. Espinosa←▼J. Peräaho

60'▲M. Hradecky←▼V. Vesiaho

73'▲O. Jakonen←▼J. Latonen

Turku PS substitutes

17Espinosa13Hradecky9Jakonen10Virtanen15Salminen21Duah27Lepola

Manager: T. Tainio

58'▲J. Kyöstilä←▼T. Purme

69'▲E. Ahde←▼J. Tapani

79'▲J. Thusberg←▼A. Hilska

Haka substitutes

2Kyöstilä9Ahde19Thusberg11Helminen16Kari22Leong30Immonen

Match Recap: Turku PS vs Haka

Haka beat Turku PS 3-2 in Ykkönen on July 20, 2019.

Goals: S. Ojala (35', 43'), E. Espinosa (53'), V. Starck (83'), M. Hradecky (88').

The match was played at Veritas Stadion (Turku (Åbo)).

Turku PS vs Haka — Ykkönen 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Turku PS vs Haka