Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Türkspor Dortmund vs Sportfreunde Lotte — Oberliga - Westfalen 2020

Türkspor Dortmund
Türkspor Dortmund
FT
3 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Sportfreunde Lotte
Sportfreunde Lotte
9/2/2023Oberliga - WestfalenOberliga - Westfalen · Westfalen - 4Kunstrasenplatz Mendeplatz 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Türkspor Dortmund42%
×Draw22%
Sportfreunde Lotte37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Türkspor Dortmund
1.93
Sportfreunde Lotte
1.80

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 35 home / 34 away

creates per match

Türkspor Dortmund
2.54
Sportfreunde Lotte
2.00

allows per match

Türkspor Dortmund
1.60
Sportfreunde Lotte
1.32

finishing

Türkspor Dortmund+0.00on par
Sportfreunde Lotte+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Türkspor Dortmund ↓

Sportfreunde Lotte →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Türkspor Dortmund or draw
63%
Türkspor Dortmund or Sportfreunde Lotte
78%
Draw or Sportfreunde Lotte
58%

Winning margin

Türkspor Dortmund wins by 2+
23%
Sportfreunde Lotte wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Türkspor Dortmund 1+ goals
85%
Türkspor Dortmund 2+ goals
57%
Türkspor Dortmund 3+ goals
30%
Sportfreunde Lotte 1+ goals
83%
Sportfreunde Lotte 2+ goals
54%
Sportfreunde Lotte 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

Türkspor Dortmund (draw refunded)
53%
Sportfreunde Lotte (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Türkspor Dortmund at home — creates 2.54, concedes 1.60 · 35 matches

Sportfreunde Lotte away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.32 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Türkspor Dortmund attack 2.54 + Sportfreunde Lotte defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.93

Sportfreunde Lotte attack 2.00 + Türkspor Dortmund defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Türkspor Dortmund scores more
42%
level
22%
Sportfreunde Lotte scores more
37%

Türkspor Dortmund at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Türkspor Dortmund will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Westfalen: Türkspor Dortmund 3–0 Sportfreunde Lotte

Türkspor Dortmund beat Sportfreunde Lotte 3-0 in Oberliga - Westfalen on September 2, 2023.

The match was played at Kunstrasenplatz Mendeplatz 2 in Dortmund.