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Sportfreunde Lotte vs Türkspor Dortmund — Oberliga - Westfalen 2020

Sportfreunde Lotte
Sportfreunde Lotte
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Türkspor Dortmund
Türkspor Dortmund
3/2/2024Oberliga - WestfalenOberliga - Westfalen · Westfalen - 21Stadion am Lotter Kreuz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Sportfreunde Lotte60%
×Draw20%
Türkspor Dortmund20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sportfreunde Lotte
2.20
Türkspor Dortmund
1.20

Sportfreunde Lotte creates 83% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 35 away

creates per match

Sportfreunde Lotte
2.62
Türkspor Dortmund
1.51

allows per match

Sportfreunde Lotte
0.88
Türkspor Dortmund
1.77

finishing

Sportfreunde Lotte+0.00on par
Türkspor Dortmund+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sportfreunde Lotte ↓

Türkspor Dortmund →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Sportfreunde Lotte or draw
80%
Sportfreunde Lotte or Türkspor Dortmund
80%
Draw or Türkspor Dortmund
40%

Winning margin

Sportfreunde Lotte wins by 2+
37%
Türkspor Dortmund wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Sportfreunde Lotte 1+ goals
89%
Sportfreunde Lotte 2+ goals
64%
Sportfreunde Lotte 3+ goals
37%
Türkspor Dortmund 1+ goals
70%
Türkspor Dortmund 2+ goals
34%
Türkspor Dortmund 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Sportfreunde Lotte (draw refunded)
75%
Türkspor Dortmund (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sportfreunde Lotte at home — creates 2.62, concedes 0.88 · 34 matches

Türkspor Dortmund away — creates 1.51, concedes 1.77 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sportfreunde Lotte attack 2.62 + Türkspor Dortmund defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 2.20

Türkspor Dortmund attack 1.51 + Sportfreunde Lotte defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Sportfreunde Lotte scores more
60%
level
20%
Türkspor Dortmund scores more
20%

Sportfreunde Lotte at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Sportfreunde Lotte will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Westfalen: Sportfreunde Lotte 0–1 Türkspor Dortmund

Türkspor Dortmund beat Sportfreunde Lotte 1-0 in Oberliga - Westfalen on March 2, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion am Lotter Kreuz in Lotte.