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Türkspor Dortmund vs Bövinghausen — Oberliga - Westfalen 2020

Türkspor Dortmund
Türkspor Dortmund
FT
6 – 0
HT: 4 – 0
Bövinghausen
Bövinghausen
10/14/2023Oberliga - WestfalenOberliga - Westfalen · Westfalen - 10Kunstrasenplatz Mendeplatz 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Türkspor Dortmund60%
×Draw19%
Bövinghausen21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Türkspor Dortmund
2.52
Bövinghausen
1.45

Türkspor Dortmund creates 74% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 47 away

creates per match

Türkspor Dortmund
2.54
Bövinghausen
1.30

allows per match

Türkspor Dortmund
1.60
Bövinghausen
2.51

finishing

Türkspor Dortmund+0.00on par
Bövinghausen+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Türkspor Dortmund ↓

Bövinghausen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–17%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
55%45%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

Türkspor Dortmund or draw
79%
Türkspor Dortmund or Bövinghausen
81%
Draw or Bövinghausen
40%

Winning margin

Türkspor Dortmund wins by 2+
39%
Bövinghausen wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Türkspor Dortmund 1+ goals
92%
Türkspor Dortmund 2+ goals
71%
Türkspor Dortmund 3+ goals
45%
Bövinghausen 1+ goals
77%
Bövinghausen 2+ goals
42%
Bövinghausen 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Türkspor Dortmund (draw refunded)
74%
Bövinghausen (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Türkspor Dortmund at home — creates 2.54, concedes 1.60 · 35 matches

Bövinghausen away — creates 1.30, concedes 2.51 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Türkspor Dortmund attack 2.54 + Bövinghausen defence 2.51 → ÷2 → 2.52

Bövinghausen attack 1.30 + Türkspor Dortmund defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Türkspor Dortmund scores more
60%
level
19%
Bövinghausen scores more
21%

Türkspor Dortmund at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Türkspor Dortmund will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Westfalen: Türkspor Dortmund 6–0 Bövinghausen

Türkspor Dortmund beat Bövinghausen 6-0 in Oberliga - Westfalen on October 14, 2023.

The match was played at Kunstrasenplatz Mendeplatz 2 in Dortmund.