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Bövinghausen vs Türkspor Dortmund — Oberliga - Westfalen 2020

Bövinghausen
Bövinghausen
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 2
Türkspor Dortmund
Türkspor Dortmund
4/5/2024Oberliga - WestfalenOberliga - Westfalen · Westfalen - 27Sportplatz Bövinghausen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Bövinghausen31%
×Draw21%
Türkspor Dortmund48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bövinghausen
1.71
Türkspor Dortmund
2.17

Türkspor Dortmund creates 27% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 35 away

creates per match

Bövinghausen
1.66
Türkspor Dortmund
1.51

allows per match

Bövinghausen
2.83
Türkspor Dortmund
1.77

finishing

Bövinghausen+0.00on par
Türkspor Dortmund+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bövinghausen ↓

Türkspor Dortmund →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–25%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–28%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
54%46%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

Bövinghausen or draw
52%
Bövinghausen or Türkspor Dortmund
79%
Draw or Türkspor Dortmund
69%

Winning margin

Bövinghausen wins by 2+
15%
Türkspor Dortmund wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Bövinghausen 1+ goals
82%
Bövinghausen 2+ goals
51%
Bövinghausen 3+ goals
24%
Türkspor Dortmund 1+ goals
89%
Türkspor Dortmund 2+ goals
64%
Türkspor Dortmund 3+ goals
36%

Draw no bet

Bövinghausen (draw refunded)
39%
Türkspor Dortmund (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bövinghausen at home — creates 1.66, concedes 2.83 · 47 matches

Türkspor Dortmund away — creates 1.51, concedes 1.77 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bövinghausen attack 1.66 + Türkspor Dortmund defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.71

Türkspor Dortmund attack 1.51 + Bövinghausen defence 2.83 → ÷2 → 2.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Bövinghausen scores more
31%
level
21%
Türkspor Dortmund scores more
48%

Türkspor Dortmund at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Türkspor Dortmund will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Westfalen: Bövinghausen 0–4 Türkspor Dortmund

Türkspor Dortmund beat Bövinghausen 4-0 in Oberliga - Westfalen on April 5, 2024.

The match was played at Sportplatz Bövinghausen in Dortmund.