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Türkspor Augsburg vs Schwaben Augsburg — Oberliga - Bayern Süd 2026

Türkspor Augsburg
Türkspor Augsburg
FT
1 – 7
HT: 1 – 3
Schwaben Augsburg
Schwaben Augsburg
9/3/2023Oberliga - Bayern SüdOberliga - Bayern Süd · Bayern Süd - 9Bezirkssportanlage Haunstetten

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Türkspor Augsburg26%
×Draw23%
Schwaben Augsburg50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Türkspor Augsburg
1.23
Schwaben Augsburg
1.79

Schwaben Augsburg creates 46% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 34 away

creates per match

Türkspor Augsburg
1.14
Schwaben Augsburg
1.65

allows per match

Türkspor Augsburg
1.94
Schwaben Augsburg
1.32

finishing

Türkspor Augsburg+0.00on par
Schwaben Augsburg+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Türkspor Augsburg ↓

Schwaben Augsburg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–28%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Türkspor Augsburg or draw
50%
Türkspor Augsburg or Schwaben Augsburg
77%
Draw or Schwaben Augsburg
74%

Winning margin

Türkspor Augsburg wins by 2+
11%
Schwaben Augsburg wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Türkspor Augsburg 1+ goals
71%
Türkspor Augsburg 2+ goals
35%
Türkspor Augsburg 3+ goals
13%
Schwaben Augsburg 1+ goals
83%
Schwaben Augsburg 2+ goals
53%
Schwaben Augsburg 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Türkspor Augsburg (draw refunded)
34%
Schwaben Augsburg (draw refunded)
66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Türkspor Augsburg at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.94 · 66 matches

Schwaben Augsburg away — creates 1.65, concedes 1.32 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Türkspor Augsburg attack 1.14 + Schwaben Augsburg defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.23

Schwaben Augsburg attack 1.65 + Türkspor Augsburg defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Türkspor Augsburg scores more
26%
level
23%
Schwaben Augsburg scores more
50%

Schwaben Augsburg at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Schwaben Augsburg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Bayern Süd: Türkspor Augsburg 1–7 Schwaben Augsburg

Schwaben Augsburg beat Türkspor Augsburg 7-1 in Oberliga - Bayern Süd on September 3, 2023.

The match was played at Bezirkssportanlage Haunstetten in Augsburg.