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Schwaben Augsburg vs Türkspor Augsburg — Oberliga - Bayern Süd 2026

Schwaben Augsburg
Schwaben Augsburg
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Türkspor Augsburg
Türkspor Augsburg
4/1/2023Oberliga - Bayern SüdOberliga - Bayern Süd · Bayern Süd - 26Ernst-Lehner-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Schwaben Augsburg65%
×Draw19%
Türkspor Augsburg16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Schwaben Augsburg
2.32
Türkspor Augsburg
1.05

Schwaben Augsburg creates 121% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 66 away

creates per match

Schwaben Augsburg
2.44
Türkspor Augsburg
0.86

allows per match

Schwaben Augsburg
1.24
Türkspor Augsburg
2.20

finishing

Schwaben Augsburg+0.00on par
Türkspor Augsburg+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Schwaben Augsburg ↓

Türkspor Augsburg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–18%
1–24%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Schwaben Augsburg or draw
84%
Schwaben Augsburg or Türkspor Augsburg
81%
Draw or Türkspor Augsburg
35%

Winning margin

Schwaben Augsburg wins by 2+
43%
Türkspor Augsburg wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Schwaben Augsburg 1+ goals
90%
Schwaben Augsburg 2+ goals
67%
Schwaben Augsburg 3+ goals
40%
Türkspor Augsburg 1+ goals
65%
Türkspor Augsburg 2+ goals
28%
Türkspor Augsburg 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Schwaben Augsburg (draw refunded)
80%
Türkspor Augsburg (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Schwaben Augsburg at home — creates 2.44, concedes 1.24 · 34 matches

Türkspor Augsburg away — creates 0.86, concedes 2.20 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Schwaben Augsburg attack 2.44 + Türkspor Augsburg defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 2.32

Türkspor Augsburg attack 0.86 + Schwaben Augsburg defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Schwaben Augsburg scores more
65%
level
19%
Türkspor Augsburg scores more
16%

Schwaben Augsburg at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Schwaben Augsburg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Schwaben Augsburg vs Türkspor Augsburg

Türkspor Augsburg beat Schwaben Augsburg 3-1 in Oberliga - Bayern Süd on April 1, 2023.

The match was played at Ernst-Lehner-Stadion in Augsburg.