Türkspor Augsburg 3–2 1860 München II

Türkspor Augsburg

FT

3 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

1860 München II

3/17/2024

Oberliga - Bayern Süd · Bayern Süd - 25Bezirkssportanlage Haunstetten

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Türkspor Augsburg26%

×Draw23%

1860 München II51%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Türkspor AugsburgExpected goals in this match1860 München II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

1.80

Türkspor Augsburg

1.23

1860 München II

1.80

1860 München II creates 46% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 66 away

1.14

creates per match

1.67

1.94

allows per match

1.32

creates per match

Türkspor Augsburg

1.14

1860 München II

1.67

allows per match

Türkspor Augsburg

1.94

1860 München II

1.32

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Türkspor Augsburg+0.00on par

1860 München II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Türkspor Augsburg ↓

1860 München II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–19%

0–28%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Türkspor Augsburg or draw

49%

Türkspor Augsburg or 1860 München II

77%

Draw or 1860 München II

74%

Winning margin

Türkspor Augsburg wins by 2+

11%

1860 München II wins by 2+

28%

Team goals

Türkspor Augsburg 1+ goals

71%

Türkspor Augsburg 2+ goals

35%

Türkspor Augsburg 3+ goals

13%

1860 München II 1+ goals

83%

1860 München II 2+ goals

54%

1860 München II 3+ goals

27%

Draw no bet

Türkspor Augsburg (draw refunded)

34%

1860 München II (draw refunded)

66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Türkspor Augsburg at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.94 · 66 matches

1860 München II away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.32 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Türkspor Augsburg attack 1.14 + 1860 München II defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.23

1860 München II attack 1.67 + Türkspor Augsburg defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Türkspor Augsburg scores more

26%

level

23%

1860 München II scores more

51%

1860 München II at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "1860 München II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff