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1860 München II vs Türkspor Augsburg — Oberliga - Bayern Süd 2026

1860 München II
1860 München II
FT
3 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Türkspor Augsburg
Türkspor Augsburg
4/26/2025Oberliga - Bayern SüdOberliga - Bayern Süd · Bayern Süd - 31Sportanlage Gilching

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

1860 München II69%
×Draw18%
Türkspor Augsburg13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1860 München II
2.24
Türkspor Augsburg
0.85

1860 München II creates 164% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 66 away

creates per match

1860 München II
2.27
Türkspor Augsburg
0.86

allows per match

1860 München II
0.85
Türkspor Augsburg
2.20

finishing

1860 München II+0.00on par
Türkspor Augsburg+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

1860 München II ↓

Türkspor Augsburg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

1860 München II or draw
87%
1860 München II or Türkspor Augsburg
82%
Draw or Türkspor Augsburg
31%

Winning margin

1860 München II wins by 2+
45%
Türkspor Augsburg wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

1860 München II 1+ goals
89%
1860 München II 2+ goals
65%
1860 München II 3+ goals
38%
Türkspor Augsburg 1+ goals
57%
Türkspor Augsburg 2+ goals
21%
Türkspor Augsburg 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

1860 München II (draw refunded)
84%
Türkspor Augsburg (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

1860 München II at home — creates 2.27, concedes 0.85 · 67 matches

Türkspor Augsburg away — creates 0.86, concedes 2.20 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

1860 München II attack 2.27 + Türkspor Augsburg defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 2.24

Türkspor Augsburg attack 0.86 + 1860 München II defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

1860 München II scores more
69%
level
18%
Türkspor Augsburg scores more
13%

1860 München II at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "1860 München II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: 1860 München II vs Türkspor Augsburg

1860 München II beat Türkspor Augsburg 3-1 in Oberliga - Bayern Süd on April 26, 2025.

The match was played at Sportanlage Gilching in Gilching.