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Türkiye vs Montenegro — UEFA Nations League 2018

Türkiye
Türkiye
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Montenegro
Montenegro
10/11/2024UEFA Nations LeagueUEFA Nations League · League B - 3Samsun Yeni 19 Mayıs Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Türkiye43%
×Draw28%
Montenegro29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Türkiye
1.28
Montenegro
1.00

Türkiye creates 28% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 11 away

creates per match

Türkiye
1.83
Montenegro
0.91

allows per match

Türkiye
1.08
Montenegro
0.73

finishing

Türkiye+0.00on par
Montenegro+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Türkiye ↓

Montenegro →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Türkiye or draw
71%
Türkiye or Montenegro
72%
Draw or Montenegro
57%

Winning margin

Türkiye wins by 2+
19%
Montenegro wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Türkiye 1+ goals
72%
Türkiye 2+ goals
37%
Türkiye 3+ goals
14%
Montenegro 1+ goals
63%
Montenegro 2+ goals
26%
Montenegro 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Türkiye (draw refunded)
60%
Montenegro (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Türkiye at home — creates 1.83, concedes 1.08 · 12 matches

Montenegro away — creates 0.91, concedes 0.73 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Türkiye attack 1.83 + Montenegro defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 1.28

Montenegro attack 0.91 + Türkiye defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Türkiye scores more
43%
level
28%
Montenegro scores more
29%

Türkiye at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Türkiye will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Türkiye vs Montenegro

Türkiye beat Montenegro 1-0 in UEFA Nations League on October 11, 2024.

The match was played at Samsun Yeni 19 Mayıs Stadyumu in Samsun.