Montenegro 2–2 Türkiye: Result & Stats | Friendlies

Montenegro

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Türkiye

3/27/2018

Friendlies · Friendlies 1Podgorica City Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Montenegro44%

×Draw25%

Türkiye31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MontenegroExpected goals in this matchTürkiye

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.53

1.25

Montenegro

1.53

Türkiye

1.25

Montenegro creates 22% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 12 away

1.40

creates per match

1.17

1.33

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Montenegro

1.40

Türkiye

1.17

allows per match

Montenegro

1.33

Türkiye

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Montenegro+0.00on par

Türkiye+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Montenegro ↓

Türkiye →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Montenegro or draw

69%

Montenegro or Türkiye

75%

Draw or Türkiye

56%

Winning margin

Montenegro wins by 2+

22%

Türkiye wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Montenegro 1+ goals

78%

Montenegro 2+ goals

45%

Montenegro 3+ goals

20%

Türkiye 1+ goals

71%

Türkiye 2+ goals

36%

Türkiye 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Montenegro (draw refunded)

58%

Türkiye (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Montenegro at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.33 · 15 matches

Türkiye away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.67 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Montenegro attack 1.40 + Türkiye defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.53

Türkiye attack 1.17 + Montenegro defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Montenegro scores more

44%

level

25%

Türkiye scores more

31%

Montenegro at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Montenegro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff