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Türkgücü-Ataspor vs Greuther Fürth II — Regionalliga - Bayern 2019

Türkgücü-Ataspor
Türkgücü-Ataspor
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Greuther Fürth II
Greuther Fürth II
9/28/2019Regionalliga - BayernRegionalliga - Bayern · Bayern - 13Sportpark Heimstetten

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Türkgücü-Ataspor48%
×Draw24%
Greuther Fürth II28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Türkgücü-Ataspor
1.64
Greuther Fürth II
1.20

Türkgücü-Ataspor creates 37% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 87 away

creates per match

Türkgücü-Ataspor
1.65
Greuther Fürth II
1.33

allows per match

Türkgücü-Ataspor
1.06
Greuther Fürth II
1.62

finishing

Türkgücü-Ataspor+0.00on par
Greuther Fürth II+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Türkgücü-Ataspor ↓

Greuther Fürth II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Türkgücü-Ataspor or draw
72%
Türkgücü-Ataspor or Greuther Fürth II
76%
Draw or Greuther Fürth II
52%

Winning margin

Türkgücü-Ataspor wins by 2+
25%
Greuther Fürth II wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Türkgücü-Ataspor 1+ goals
81%
Türkgücü-Ataspor 2+ goals
49%
Türkgücü-Ataspor 3+ goals
23%
Greuther Fürth II 1+ goals
70%
Greuther Fürth II 2+ goals
34%
Greuther Fürth II 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Türkgücü-Ataspor (draw refunded)
63%
Greuther Fürth II (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Türkgücü-Ataspor at home — creates 1.65, concedes 1.06 · 48 matches

Greuther Fürth II away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.62 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Türkgücü-Ataspor attack 1.65 + Greuther Fürth II defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.64

Greuther Fürth II attack 1.33 + Türkgücü-Ataspor defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Türkgücü-Ataspor scores more
48%
level
24%
Greuther Fürth II scores more
28%

Türkgücü-Ataspor at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Türkgücü-Ataspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Regionalliga - Bayern: Türkgücü-Ataspor 2–0 Greuther Fürth II

Türkgücü-Ataspor beat Greuther Fürth II 2-0 in Regionalliga - Bayern on September 28, 2019.

The match was played at Sportpark Heimstetten in Kirchheim bei München.